Were you aware that last summer the Republican majority Wisconsin Legislature collaborated with Democratic Governor Tony Evers to increase the 2025 – 2027 budget by 15% over the 2023 – 2025 budget, the largest budget to budget spending jump in at least 20 years? The budget went from $99.3 billion to $113.7 billion. If you’re a conservative, the facts about the current budget would likely influence your opinion about whether the Republican Legislators are doing their job – governing from a framework of conservative principles that have keeping a lid on spending at their core. The MacIver Institute went through the budget with a fine-tooth comb when it was passed and concluded it created a long-term structural deficit and burdens the taxpayers with billions of dollars in hidden taxes and fees.
https://www.maciverinstitute.com/research/macivers-verdict-on-the-2025-27-state-budget
Opinions are based on what we know…or think we know. To make sense of the opinions of others, we need to know what they’re based on. This fundamental concept is consistently ignored by Charles Franklin, Director of the Marquette Law School Poll and his team of pollsters.
The latest brouhaha around the legislative defeat of the deal brokered by Democratic Governor Tony Evers, Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, and Republican Senate Leader Devin LeMahieu to spend $1.8 billion of a $2.5 billion projected budget surplus prompted the Marquette pollsters to conduct a mini survey. According to Franklin, he was interested in the public response to the usually deeply divided political parties coming together to defeat the bill. On WISN’s UpFront Sunday program on May 24, Charles Franklin teased the release of the survey that was scheduled for the following Tuesday. He reported that 80% of Wisconsinites believe the bill should have passed and expressed surprise at how “even” support was across political parties. Franklin explained the survey included 454 adults, about half of the usual sample of 800. He said the respondents were pulled from a panel of individuals who had previously agreed to be surveyed, which made them easily reachable. He claimed that the survey sample was “random” because a random selection process was used to identify who would be surveyed from within the pool of available respondents. In truth, this was anything but a random sample of Wisconsin citizens. The pool itself is biased by the fact everyone in it has agreed to participate in surveys on a regular basis for token compensation, and was willing and able to participate online. The inherent bias in the sample is the least of the survey’s problems.
Questions Matter
Barry Burden, the Executive Director of the University of Wisconsin – Madison’s Elections Research Center is a go to resource for members of the media. He has emphasized the importance of how questions are worded in determining polling results.
Consider two mock survey questions. One simply asks for an opinion. The other asks for an opinion and provides information that may explain the basis for the opinion. Would a survey respondent answer both questions the same way?
Should the state use this year’s budget surplus to increase annual funding to schools?
Should the state use this year’s budget surplus to increase annual funding to schools if there is a risk that taxes will have to be increased to cover this expense in the years that follow?
Franklin doesn’t design his poll questions with facts that would elicit informed opinions from respondents. Legislators from both sides of the aisle were out in force after the Senate vote doomed the spending bill to explain the many different reasons they opposed the bill. The only thing they had in common was opposition. Their reasons spanned liberal and conservative ideology and included the following among others:
- The Legislative Fiscal Bureau warned that the proposed spending would create a $3 billion gap in the next state budget forcing tax hikes or cuts to service if economic growth stalled.
- The surplus is one time money from taxpayers who have been overcharged and should not be used to commit taxpayers to recurring spending such as the increase in school funding;
- It would be unwise to “empty the checkbook” making sweeping cuts and rebates in the event of a potential economic downturn;
- The entire surplus should be returned to the taxpayers who paid it;
- The money should be given to the people who “need it”;
- This was a short-term election year “political gimmick”;
- The process excluded legislators from both houses, depriving them of the opportunity to negotiate their priorities.
Neither the Legislative Fiscal Bureau analysis nor the objections articulated by legislators were used to inform the poll questions. The Bureau’s analysis was reduced to “some have argued” in the poll questions which read:
- “Some have argued that the bill was fiscally irresponsible for spending a projected surplus now that might lead to a deficit in future budgets. Would it be better to delay providing special education funding, property tax reductions, and rebate checks until next year, or would it be better to provide them now, even if it might affect the budget next year?”
- “The bill was defeated in the state Senate on May 13, with all 15 Democratic senators and 3 Republicans voting against the bill, versus 15 Republicans voting for it. The bill was also opposed by Republican candidate for Governor Tom Tiffany and most of the Democratic candidates for Governor. How do you feel about (Democratic candidates for governor opposing) (Republican candidate for Governor Tom Tiffany opposing) (Democratic Governor Tony Evers supporting) the bill? Right or wrong position?”
The answers to these questions and another that included the details of the basic provisions of the bill – property tax reductions, increased school spending, tax rebates, no tax on tips or overtime – and simply asked if it should have been passed or defeated, generated the following sweeping conclusions from the poll’s creators:
“A new Marquette Law School Poll finds 80% of Wisconsin adults say the legislature should have passed a proposed bill using the projected state budget surplus to reduce property taxes, increase special education funding, and provide rebates to taxpayers.”
“In a rare level of agreement across party lines, 77% of Republicans, 81% of independents, and 82% of Democrats in the poll say the legislature should have passed the surplus bill…”
On May 31 Charles Franklin, appearing for a second time on UpFront to discuss the survey results, was asked for his biggest take away from the survey. He responded it was the “even” support for passing the bill across parties, liberals, conservatives, and geography. Even with “budget uncertainty” for next year, he added, 69% say do it now.
Next up – the Media
Molly Beck invariably writes some of the most politically biased and inaccurate articles published by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Predictably on the morning after this poll’s release, Beck and a colleague, Jessie Opoien, had a front-page article titled “Wisconsinites overwhelmingly support failed tax deal in survey.” Leading with “a vast majority of Wisconsin adults” say the bill should have passed, Beck proceeds to call the deal that was, according to lawmakers from both parties, a secret backroom negotiation by Evers, Vos, and LeMahieu, legislation that was put forth “by a bipartisan group of state leaders after months of talks…”
Attributing responsibility for the bill’s failure to Republican candidate for Governor Tom Tiffany, Beck claims Tiffany pressured Republican legislators to vote against the bill with “public and private calls.” Tiffany stated publicly and unapologetically that if he were Governor he would not support the bill and why. “Leaders” who lead take a stand on important matters. Suggesting Tiffany had the power to kill the deal is just more dirty politics. Beck’s liberal ideology permeates all of her writing and makes it obvious she would love to stir up public unhappiness with Tiffany before the November election if she could.
Beck went on to say the bill “would have spent state money to lower out-of-pocket costs for taxpayers and schools, decreasing school property taxes about 5% statewide.” There is no state money. That money belongs to the people.
Incompetence or Deceit?
Members of the media use every poll that is published to generate stories obviously intended to influence public perception and support a political point of view. They are unconstrained in their misuse of the data to promote an agenda because the pollsters consistently violate the rules of credible research including a representative sample, well worded questions and clearly stated limitations – what can and cannot be derived from the survey. The most generous explanation for this dance of the media and the pollsters would be incompetence, but our experience over many cycles points to something more sinister.
Our Founders created the free press to ride herd on those in power and expose the corruption that is an inevitable byproduct of money and power in the hands of too few for too long. Over many decades, members of the American media have turned their backs on their obligation to chase the truth wherever it leads in favor of advancing political agendas. They have become the greatest threat to our freedom, and their betrayal of the American people is unforgiveable. Molly Beck is a headliner in a long list of Wisconsin’s journalistic failures.
The poor methodology of the Marquette poll and the enabling silence of its creators invite misuse every time a poll is released. Just last week Robin Vos, in an interview about the failed spending bill, expressed the view that the Legislators will return to Madison to pass it because the results of the Marquette poll will force them to do what the people want.
Our complacency allowed polls to become a significant part of the political conversation and a framework for media lies. We’re paying attention now as we are fully engaged in the fight to take our country back. The pollsters seem to be intent on continuing to feed the public baseless opinions that are meaningless. We don’t believe a word they say.
